Hello, my beautiful friends. Welcome back to the podcast. Today we’re going to talk about something that you’re probably doing all the time without even realizing it — something called assumptive reasoning.

I love this topic because assumptive reasoning is one of those universal human experiences. Everybody does it. But very few of us know what it actually is, why we do it, and — most importantly — the impact it has on our emotional lives, especially when you’re in the thick of infertility and IVF.

So let’s break it down.

What is Assumptive Reasoning?

Assumptive reasoning is one of the brain’s favorite tricks. It’s what happens when your mind takes past experiences, patterns, or even fears and uses them to predict what’s going to happen next. Instead of waiting for more information, your brain fills in the blanks.

From a neuroscience perspective, this is your brain being efficient. Brains are prediction machines. They’re constantly scanning for patterns and trying to save you time and energy by saying, “Oh, I’ve seen this before. I know how this ends.”

And honestly — in a lot of areas of life, that’s a good thing. If you touched a hot stove once, your brain remembers it and assumes every glowing burner is dangerous. That’s protective.

But in the emotional rollercoaster of infertility and IVF, assumptive reasoning gets messy. Because your brain isn’t just pulling from facts — it’s also pulling from fear, from disappointment, from grief.

So, you spot at 8 days past transfer. Your brain doesn’t just register “spotting.” It goes straight to: “I’ve spotted before, and that cycle failed. Therefore, this cycle must be failing too.”

Or you start testing early, peeing on every stick in sight. And one day the line looks darker, the next day it looks lighter. Your brain takes that tiny piece of information and spins a whole story: “This must mean I’m losing it” or “This definitely means it’s working.”

Or maybe you compare your cycles: “The last time I had sore boobs, I got pregnant. This time I don’t have sore boobs, so clearly it didn’t work.”

Do you see the pattern? Your brain takes one piece of input — a cramp, a symptom, a faint line, even the absence of a symptom — and it jumps to a conclusion. It assumes it knows the ending to the story.

The problem is: IVF doesn’t follow predictable patterns. Each cycle is its own story. Each embryo, each body response, each transfer is different. But your brain doesn’t like that kind of uncertainty. So it leans on assumptions to create the illusion of certainty.

That’s what makes assumptive reasoning so tricky: it feels logical. It feels like truth. But it’s really just your brain’s best guess, based on a very limited and very biased data set.

Why We Do It

So why do our brains lean so hard on assumptive reasoning?

Because at the core, your brain hates uncertainty. Uncertainty feels dangerous. From an evolutionary standpoint, sitting in the unknown could mean you’re at risk. So your brain developed this incredible ability to predict, to fill in gaps, and to give you the illusion of safety.

Your brain is wired for pattern recognition. It constantly looks for cause-and-effect relationships, even if they’re flimsy. It wants shortcuts, because shortcuts save energy. Instead of analyzing every new situation from scratch, your brain grabs an old template and says, “Yep, I know how this goes.”

Here’s a metaphor: imagine you’re standing on one side of a river, and you want to cross. You look at the ground under your feet — it’s solid, stable, perfect for building a bridge. So you assume the ground on the other side of the river is just as solid. You build the bridge, and only when you reach the end do you realize the other side is marshy and unstable.

That’s exactly how assumptive reasoning works. From the side you’re on, with the limited information you have, it feels logical. It feels safe. But you can’t actually see the other side until you get there.

In IVF terms:

• You assume this cramp means another failure, because last time that’s what it meant.

• You assume the faint line means it’s working, because you saw the same thing on your friend’s test.

• You assume that three failed transfers means it will never work, because that’s the pattern you can see from here.

But those assumptions are just the bridge your brain builds to escape the uncertainty of not knowing. And sometimes, the other side doesn’t hold.

And here’s the emotional layer: your brain isn’t trying to hurt you — it’s trying to protect you. By assuming the worst, you feel prepared. By assuming the best, you feel reassured. Either way, it’s your brain’s attempt to avoid the ache of uncertainty.

The Limitations of Assumptive Reasoning

Here’s the hard truth about assumptive reasoning: it’s not built for accuracy, it’s built for efficiency. It gives you a story — not necessarily the true story.

That means there are some real limitations when we rely on it too heavily, especially in IVF.

1. The data set is too small.
Your brain is pulling from a handful of experiences — maybe a couple of cycles, maybe one friend’s story, maybe something you read in a forum. That’s a tiny, biased sample size. Yet your brain treats it like a universal law.

2. It creates false certainty.
Assumptions feel like truth, but they’re not. They’re placeholders. And when the outcome doesn’t match the assumption, the crash can be even harder.

3. It rehearses pain that hasn’t happened yet.
Even when your assumption turns out to be right, it doesn’t usually soften the blow. You’ve just lived the heartbreak twice — once in your imagination, and then again in real life.

4. It keeps you locked in past patterns.
When you assume the future will look like the past, you close yourself off to the possibility of something new. You carry old pain into new cycles.

So yes — assumptive reasoning is efficient. But efficient isn’t always helpful. It’s like letting your GPS auto-complete a destination — you meant to go to Elm Street, but your brain decided you must’ve meant Elmhurst Drive, and now you’re way off course.

Assumptions vs. Intuition

So if assumptive reasoning is one way our brains try to navigate uncertainty, what’s the alternative?

It’s intuition.

And let me be clear: I don’t mean intuition in a fluffy, “just manifest it” kind of way. I mean it in the grounded sense — that quiet, embodied knowing that comes from within you.

If assumptive reasoning lives in your head, intuition lives in your gut.
If assumptive reasoning screams, intuition whispers.

Here’s the tricky part, though: for most of us, it doesn’t feel natural to listen to intuition at first. We’re used to living in our heads. We’re used to assumptions. So when I say, “Tune into your intuition,” you might think: “I don’t even know what that feels like anymore. I don’t trust it.”

That makes complete sense. Most of us have been taught from a very young age to second-guess ourselves — whether through trauma, socialization, or the repeated heartbreak of infertility itself. So much of this journey has taught you to not trust your body.

And because assumptive reasoning is so familiar, it will often feel like the “right” answer. In fact, here’s where it gets even messier: assumptive reasoning sometimes is right. You may spot at 8 days and it does mean a negative. You may test early and the faint line does disappear.

But here’s the question: did being “right” about it actually help you? Did it protect you from the heartbreak? Or did it just add more suffering by making you live the pain twice — once in your assumptions, and again in the actual outcome?

That’s the core limitation. Assumptive reasoning might give you a guess, sometimes even a correct one, but it doesn’t connect you to yourself. It doesn’t anchor you in your body, or soothe your nervous system, or help you navigate with compassion.

Intuition, on the other hand, is that quieter presence that doesn’t demand certainty. It doesn’t need to scream or rush. It’s more like a whisper: “Here’s what feels true for me right now.”

So yes — there’s a learning curve. If you’re used to listening only to the loudest voice in the room — the anxious, assumptive one — it will take practice to notice that softer, steadier voice underneath. But that’s the work worth doing. Because reconnecting to your intuition isn’t just about making “better” predictions — it’s about rebuilding trust with yourself.

Practical Ways to Notice & Shift

So, how do you start practicing this? How do you tell the difference between assumption and intuition?

1. Pause and Name It.
When you hear yourself say, “I know what this means,” stop and ask: “Am I making an assumption, or am I hearing intuition?”

2. Notice the Tone.
Assumption is loud, anxious, urgent. Intuition is quieter, calmer, and often feels more like a gentle nudge.

3. Journal It Out.
Ask yourself: “What am I assuming right now?” Then follow with: “If I set down that assumption, what do I notice in my body?”

4. Ground Into Your Body.
Place a hand on your chest, or feel your feet on the ground. Bring your awareness down from your racing thoughts to your body. Ask: “What does my gut say right now?”

5. Hold Assumptions Lightly.
Your brain will always make assumptions. That’s okay. Just remember: an assumption is not truth. Instead of saying, “This means it didn’t work,” try, “I notice my brain is assuming this means it didn’t work.”

The goal isn’t to stop assumptions. It’s to hold them more loosely, so you can leave space for intuition to come through.

So here’s what I want you to take from today, my beautiful friends:

Assumptive reasoning is normal. It’s not a character flaw. It’s just your brain trying to protect you, trying to save you from the uncertainty that feels unbearable in the IVF process.

But it’s also limited. It’s imperfect. Even when it gets it “right,” it doesn’t usually spare you from pain — it just makes you live it twice. And when it gets it wrong, it robs you of the peace you might have had in those in-between moments.

Intuition, on the other hand, is always there. Even if it feels faint, even if you’ve learned to distrust it, even if life has taught you to silence it. It doesn’t demand certainty, it doesn’t scream, it doesn’t rush. It whispers. It grounds. It connects you back to yourself.

So the invitation this week is not to banish assumptions — that’s impossible. It’s simply to notice them, to hold them lightly, and to ask yourself: What if I listened for the whisper instead of the scream? What if I reconnected with myself, even just for a moment?

Because IVF takes so much out of you — your time, your money, your emotional bandwidth. But your intuition? That’s yours. It’s always been yours. And even here, in the middle of uncertainty, you can practice returning to it.

And that, my beautiful friends, is what I have for you this week. Until next time — be gentle with yourselves.